Economic Survey Reports Outlook Collapse and Historic Negative Index Amid COVID-19 Outbreak
Read Richmond Times coverage >
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive Virginia CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
The first quarter 2020 CEO Economic Outlook Survey by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs finds that fewer than 7% of Virginia CEOs expect sales, capital spending, or employment to increase over the next six months. Overall, expectations at the end of the first quarter of 2020 were the lowest seen in the survey’s 10-year history, producing the first-ever negative index.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
FINDING A WAY THROUGH THE CRISIS
Scot McRoberts, Executive Director of the Virginia Council of CEOs says, “I’ve heard from several small and mid-sized business CEOs that it is like someone turned off the faucet. Suddenly last week, no one is calling, no one is buying. Some of these businesses will go under.”
“We are working hard to help our CEOs stay connected so that they can help one another.” – Scot McRoberts
“We have never seen such a complete reversal in CEO sentiment. Just last quarter, CEOs seemed optimistic for a continued strong economy,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. “Now, everything has collapsed and none has any certainty about the future.”
However, McRoberts believes that “many will find a way through this crisis by relying on reserves, scaling back, and innovating within the current environment.” He assures VACEO members, “We are working hard to help our CEOs stay connected so that they can help one another.”
Mickey Quiñones, Dean of the Robins School of Business, noted, “The sentiment expressed by these executives is consistent with what we have heard in our own conversations with business leaders over the last couple of weeks. One of the great things I have learned in my short time in the Robins School is that our faculty are viewed as valuable experts in all kinds of economic conditions, and we are ready to help them through this crisis.”
CEOs RESPOND TO COVID-19. WEIGH-IN ON TAX RELIEF MEASURES
Because of the current crisis, CEOs were asked several questions that related specifically to COVID-19. More than 50% believe that they have been able to quickly adapt to the disruption caused by COVID-19 so that they will continue to operate without significant layoffs, but 14% believe that significant layoffs are “probably” (9%) or “definitely” (5%) likely. Thirty-two percent are still uncertain at this time.
CEOs were asked in what ways COVID-19 has caused them to change products, markets, or customers. Many have moved to virtual offerings and interactions, but many others are not able to make changes and are trying to cope with expected declines in sales. As one wrote, “We are just slow…less business.” A few are lowering prices to encourage sales.
When asked what “other extraordinary steps your business is taking,” nearly all mentioned remote work and sanitation/cleaning/health guidelines. As one CEO responded, “Cleaning…all the time. Working from home for those who can.” A few mentioned pay cuts and furloughs, and those in business-to-business markets emphasized the importance of continued client contact.
When asked what state and federal governments could do to help small businesses through the crisis, there is a clear consensus that in order to remain in business tax relief and low- or no-interest loans are required. CEOs desire to keep their employees rather than release them to unemployment programs.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SALES, CAPITAL SPENDING, HIRING
The first quarter survey found that executives’ expectations for sales, hiring, capital spending fell. To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- More than 87 percent expect sales to be lower
- 82 percent of respondents expect capital spending to decrease
- 54 percent expect employment to decrease (40 percent expect employment to remain flat)
- 101 CEOs responded to the survey, the largest number of respondents in the history of the survey,
- The survey was administered March 18-23
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance and retail
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $11 million
- The average employment count: 57
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The Robins School and VACEOs jointly conduct the quarterly survey, which regularly asks about expectations for sales, capital spending and employment, plus other relevant issues, helping Virginia companies anticipate business conditions and plan for growth.
The Robins School adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of American companies that conducts a similar survey nationally. Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Read Richmond Times coverage >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
ABOUT VIRGINIA COUNCIL OF CEOs
The Virginia Council of CEOs is a nonprofit association whose mission is to connect the CEOs of small and mid-sized businesses for learning and growth. The Council is led by a volunteer board of directors, advisory board and a small staff. Currently, there are 215 CEO members, mainly in Richmond and Charlottesville. Learn more at www.vaceos.org.
ABOUT ROBINS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, highly-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a highly-ranked liberal arts university. U.S. News ranks the Robins School’s MBA program #35 in the country. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development, training and consulting to area businesses.
Economic Outlook Rebounds in Fourth Quarter of 2019
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive Virginia CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
The fourth quarter 2019 CEO Economic Outlook survey by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs finds that Virginia CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending, and employment over the next six months all rose compared to their expectations last quarter. Overall, expectations at the end of the third quarter of 2019 were similar to those last seen in the first quarter of 2019.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
Says Scot McRoberts, Executive Director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “Do the age-old rules of economic cycles still apply in 2019? Will we eventually experience a recession? Your guess is as good as mine. For now, CEOs of small and mid-sized companies are taking good advantage of the strong economy – if they can find and retain the workforce they need to grow.”
“Despite uncertainty over next year’s elections, CEO optimism for a continued strong economy seems to have returned,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. “As one CEO commented, ‘Election year jitters make people nervous, but the economy and real estate market are otherwise strong.’ However, expectations may be hard to achieve, as CEOs see the tight job market as a major issue for the coming year.” he adds.
CEOs were asked to share the main factors relating to their outlook, and the biggest issue they expect to address in the coming year. Expectations for a continued strong economy was the most frequently mentioned factor impacting outlook, followed by new projects or products that were expected to increase revenue. Nearly 50% of CEOs reported that talent issues are their priority for next year.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SALES, CAPITAL SPENDING, HIRING
The 2019 fourth quarter survey found that Virginia CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending, and employment over the next six months all rose compared to their expectations last quarter. To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- More than 71 percent of CEO respondents expect sales to increase (up more than six percentage points from the third quarter results)
- More than 42 percent of CEOs expect capital spending to increase (up nearly 10 percentage points from last quarter)
- Nearly 57 percent of respondent CEOs expect employment to increase over the next six months (up about 10 percentage points from the third quarter survey)
- 76 CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered December 3-12
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance, insurance, and retail
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $12 million
- The average employment count: 60
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The Robins School and VACEOs jointly conduct the quarterly survey, which regularly asks about expectations for sales, capital spending and employment, plus other relevant issues, helping Virginia companies anticipate business conditions and plan for growth. The Robins School adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of American companies that conducts a similar survey nationally. Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org
ABOUT VIRGINIA COUNCIL OF CEOs
The Virginia Council of CEOs is a nonprofit association whose mission is to connect the CEOs of small and mid-sized businesses for learning and growth. The Council is led by a volunteer board of directors, advisory board and a small staff. Currently, there are 230 CEO members. Learn more at www.vaceos.org.
ABOUT ROBINS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, highly-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a highly-ranked liberal arts university. U.S. News ranks the Robins School’s MBA program #35 in the country. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development, training and consulting to area businesses.
Economic Outlook Falls For Second Consecutive Quarter
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive Virginia CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
The third quarter 2019 CEO Economic Outlook survey by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs finds that Virginia CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending, and employment over the next six months fell again compared to their expectations last quarter. Overall, expectations at the end of the third quarter of 2019 were similar to those last seen in the first half of 2014.
Scot McRoberts, co-founder VACEOs
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “While the overall outlook declined again, the CEOs I speak with each day remain mostly optimistic. Of course, optimism is a defining characteristic of entrepreneurs! My gut tells me the decline is a product of anticipating a recession – most thought it would have happened by now – coupled with the ripple effects of tariffs on Chinese goods.”
“Uncertainty rather than pessimism seems to be driving the results,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. “One CEO commented, ‘I am neither optimistic or pessimistic; given the unknowns created by the current administration, I am simply uncertain and proceeding with caution.’ Others suggest that sales would be even higher if the job market were not so tight,” he adds.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
CENTRAL VA CEOs WEIGH IN ON CHINESE TARIFFS
CEOs were asked three questions related to tariffs.
- More than 45% of CEOs said that their companies would not be impacted by continued tariffs on Chinese imports.
- Nearly 50% indicated that a resolution of the trade dispute would increase their outlook slightly (36.36%) or significantly (11.36%).
CEOs were asked the way in which they expected continued tariffs to impact their business.
- Nearly one quarter (23.86%) said they would increase prices charged to customers 11.36% expected reduced profits, and a small percentage would reduce hiring (6.82%) or reduce capital spending (5.68%).
- More than 40% indicated that they definitely (26.14%) or probably (17.05%) supported the new tariffs on Chinese imports, even if business was hurt in the short run.
- About a quarter (23.73%) were undecided, and about a quarter indicated that they definitely (17.05%) or probably (10.23%) did not support the new tariffs on Chinese imports.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SALES, CAPITAL SPENDING, HIRING
The 2019 third quarter survey found that executives’ expectations for sales, hiring, and capital spending decreased. To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- About 65 percent of CEO respondents expect sales to increase (down five percentage points from the last quarter)
- More than 32 percent of CEOs expect capital spending to increase (down five percentage points from last quarter)
- Overall expectations for hiring fell from last quarter. About 47 percent of respondent CEOs expect employment to increase (down 5.5 percentage points from the last quarter)
- 89 CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered September 17-25
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance, insurance, and retail
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $12 million
- The average employment count: 65
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The Robins School and VACEOs jointly conduct the quarterly survey, which regularly asks about expectations for sales, capital spending and employment, plus other relevant issues, helping Virginia companies anticipate business conditions and plan for growth. The Robins School adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of American companies that conducts a similar survey nationally. Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
ABOUT VIRGINIA COUNCIL OF CEOs
The Virginia Council of CEOs is a nonprofit association whose mission is to connect the CEOs of small and mid-sized businesses for learning and growth. The Council is led by a volunteer board of directors, advisory board and a small staff. Currently, there are 230 CEO members.
ABOUT ROBINS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, highly-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a highly-ranked liberal arts university. U.S. News ranks the Robins School’s MBA program #35 in the country. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development, training and consulting to area businesses.
Economic Outlook Falls After Second Quarter. CEOs Most Concerned About Business Cycle, Political Polarization & Trade Wars
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive Virginia CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
The second quarter 2019 CEO Economic Outlook survey by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs finds that Virginia CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending, and employment over the next six months fell compared to their expectations last quarter. Overall, expectations at the end of the second quarter were similar to those from Q1 and Q2 of 2018.
“Uncertainty around the effects of tariffs and continuing workforce challenges seem to be tempering small business CEOs’ confidence in the future,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs. “That said, 70% of those surveyed expect growth in the next six months, so I would rate this as a positive outlook.”
“CEOs seem to expect a slowdown in the future, but see the current economy as relatively strong,” Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. He adds, “The percentages of CEOs who expect decreases in sales, capital spending and hiring is nearly identical to last quarter. The real change is in those who expect to stay the course vs. grow.”
The following survey results from the first and second quarters of 2019 show projections for the next six months for sales, spending and employment:
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
VIRGINIA CEOS SHARE CONCERNS OVER ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN AND CHINESE/MEXICAN TARIFFS
With the potential for increased tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, CEOs were asked how tariffs would impact their business.
- More than half of CEOs indicated a somewhat (43.24%) or large (13.51%) negative impact of tariffs on Chinese imports
- 43.24% indicating no impact (Chinese tariffs)
- More than 30% of CEOs indicated a somewhat (29.73%) or large (2.7%) negative impact of tariffs on Mexican imports
- 67.57% indicating no impact (Mexican tariffs)
- No CEOs indicated any positive impact of tariffs on imports from either country
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- More than 70 percent expect an increase in sales (down more than seven percentage points from the last quarter)
- Nearly 38 percent expect capital spending to increase (up 1.7 points from last quarter)
- More than 52 percent of respondents expect employment to increase over the next six months (down nearly 12 points from the last quarter)
- Seventy-four CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered June 18-25
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance, insurance, and retail
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $16.5 million
- The average employment count: 64
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The Robins School and VACEOs jointly conduct the quarterly survey, which regularly asks about expectations for sales, capital spending and employment, plus other relevant issues, helping Virginia companies anticipate business conditions and plan for growth. The Robins School adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of American companies that conducts a similar survey nationally. Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Economic Outlook Ticks Up After First Quarter
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive Virginia CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
The first quarter 2019 CEO Economic Outlook survey finds that Virginia CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending, and employment over the next six months rose compared to their expectations last quarter. Overall, expectations at the end of the first quarter were the second-highest recorded over the past year, and significantly higher than their expectations in the first quarter of 2018.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “The small business CEOs I work with are running at capacity. For most, if they could hire more of the right employees, they would be producing even more.”
“Despite the growing concerns about the potential for a slowdown, Virginia CEOs are still positive on the economy. Most CEOs cite strong demand, order backlogs and planned growth for their expectations,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2019 first quarter survey found that executives’ expectations for sales and hiring and capital spending increased slightly. To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- Nearly 78 percent expect an increase in sales (up more than six percentage points from the fourth quarter results)
- Thirty six percent of respondents expect capital spending to increase (up three percentage points from last quarter)
- More than 65 percent expect employment to increase (up nearly five percentage points from last quarter)
- 72 CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered March 19-27
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance, insurance, and retail
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $10.2 million
- The average employment count: 60
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The Robins School and VACEOs jointly conduct the quarterly survey, which regularly asks about expectations for sales, capital spending and employment, plus other relevant issues, helping Virginia companies anticipate business conditions and plan for growth. The Robins School adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of American companies that conducts a similar survey nationally. Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org
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