2017 2nd Quarter Economic Survey Results
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive “Economic Outlook Survey.”
The second quarter 2017 CEO Economic Outlook survey finds that the level of optimism among central Virginia CEOs remains near the highest levels seen in the survey’s seven-year history.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
The survey’s index, which measures executives’ views on projected hiring, capital spending and sales over the next six months, was the third-highest ever, surpassed only by the two all-time highs reached in the previous two quarters (Q4 2016, Q1 2017). The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
“As I work with the CEOs of small and mid-sized companies across central Virginia, I hear almost universally that the most significant restraint on growth is their ability to attract and retain the talent they need,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs. “Some of these CEOs are getting pretty creative. One is offering five weeks of vacation to new hires!”
“The past three quarters have generated the three highest in the history of the survey,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. He adds, “Current results seem to be driven by actual market conditions rather than speculation about the economy under a new administration, as CEOs cite higher business and consumer demand as driving their responses. However, several CEOs cited difficulty finding appropriate talent to fuel their efforts.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2017 second quarter survey found that executives’ expectations for sales fell slightly from last quarter’s. To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- More than 73 percent expect an increase in sales (down about eight percentage points from last quarter)
- Nearly 33 percent of respondents expect sales to increase by more than 10 percent
- 42 percent of respondents expect capital spending to increase (compared to 46 percent last quarter)
- More than 53 percent expect capital spending to stay flat
- More than 56 percent expect employment to increase, down from about 65 percent last quarter
- 64 CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered June 27 – July 6
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance and retail.
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $12 million
- The average employment: 52
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The survey, adapted from a similar Business Roundtable national survey, provides a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region. It also helps central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
Read Richmond Times-Dispatch coverage >
Read Robins School of Business press release >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index Reaches New High During 2017 Q1
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive “Economic Outlook Survey.”
The first quarter 2017 CEO Economic Outlook survey finds the highest level of optimism among central Virginia CEOs in the survey’s seven-year history.
Economic Index Historical Data
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.73 (historic low) | |||
| 2019 | 100.5 | 94.13 | 86.33 | 101.47 |
| 2018 | 94.60 | 92.73 | 104.30 | 97.97 |
| 2017 | 108.97 (historic high) | 103.63 | 99.17 | 106.3 |
| 2016 | 102.00 | 89.00 | 89.67 | 107.37 |
| 2015 | 93.90 | 93.42 | 99.80 | 92.67 |
| 2014 | 86.07 | 88.71 | 96.10 | 95.92 |
| 2013 | 86.40 | 91.60 | 92.53 | 89.57 |
| 2012 | 94.10 | 81.13 | 81.17 | 77.57 |
| 2011 | 85.63 | 74.17 | 81.17 | 88.63 |
| 2010 | 81.33 | 94.47 | 92.27 | |
The survey’s index, which measures executives’ views on projected hiring, capital spending and sales over the next six months, surpassed the previous high recorded last quarter (Q4 2016). The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
“The small business CEOs I work with are as busy as they have been since the recession, so I am not surprised that these results remain very optimistic,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs. “I recently spoke to the CEO of a small manufacturer who sells to diverse industries. He said demand is high from all customers, and they cannot keep up with the orders.”
“Over the past seven quarters the index has reached four all-time highs,” said Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business. Raggio administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter. He adds, “It appears that finally we are seeing sustained growth and optimism. CEOs cite a more ‘pro-business’ environment with expectations for tax and regulatory reform as driving their responses.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2017 first quarter survey found that executives’ expectations for sales were nearly identical to last quarter’s while their expectations for hiring and capital spending were higher than in the fourth quarter survey.
To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- More than 81 percent expect an increase in sales (down less than a single percentage point from last quarter)
- 37 percent of respondents expect sales to increase by more than 10 percent
- 46 percent of respondents expect capital spending to increase (up from 44 percent last quarter)
- Nearly 50 percent expect capital spending to stay flat
- More than 64 percent expect employment to increase, up from the 62 percent last quarter
- 65 CEOs responded to the survey, which was administered March 21-31
- Multiple industries are represented in the sample
- The average company revenue (most recent 12-month period): $10.2 million
- The average employment: 39
READ COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS
The survey, adapted from a similar Business Roundtable national survey, provides a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region. It also helps central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
Read Richmond Times Dispatch coverage >
Read Robins School of Business press release >
REQUEST RESULTS
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Post-Election 4th Quarter Economic Survey Index Reaches New High, Predicts Trump’s Impact
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive “Economic Outlook Survey.”
The post-election fourth quarter 2016 CEO Economic Outlook survey finds the highest level of optimism among central Virginia CEOs in the survey’s six-year history.
The survey’s index, which measures executives’ views on projected hiring, capital spending and sales over the next six months, surpassed previous highs recorded in Q1 2016 and Q3 2015. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
“This record index is encouraging. I expect 2017 will be a relatively strong year for area small businesses, but acquiring and retaining talent will remain a major hurdle for most,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs.
Executives’ expectations for sales, hiring and capital spending all were higher than in the third quarter survey.
To summarize, CEOs predictions over the next six months include:
- 82 percent of respondents expecting an increase in sales (up from the 66 last quarter)
- Thirty-three percent of respondents expect sales to increase by more than 10 percent
- Forty-four percent of respondents expect capital spending to increase (up from 36 percent last quarter)
- 47 percent expect capital spending to stay flat nearly identical to the 48 percent who expected flat capital spending last quarter)
- Nearly 62 percent expect employment to increase over the next six months (up from the 50 percent last quarter)
This quarter’s survey asked about the impact of the incoming Trump administration on central Virginia companies. Thirty-eight percent expect his election to increase profits over the next six months, nine percent expect his election to decrease profits and 53 percent expect no impact.
GET COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY NEWS
The survey, adapted from a similar Business Roundtable national survey, provides a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region. It also helps central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
> Read entire Robins School of Business press release.
> Read Richmond Times Dispatch coverage.
Request Results
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Virginia CEOs Report Economic Outlook, Predict Impact Should Clinton Become President
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive “Economic Outlook Survey.”
The third quarter 2016 CEO Economic Outlook survey finds that chief executives in central Virginia continue to have concerns over the upcoming election and sluggish economy. The survey’s index, which measures executives’ views on projected hiring, capital spending and sales over the next six months, remained essentially unchanged from the level recorded last quarter, which is close to its long-run average. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Read Robins School of Business press release.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “Clearly, there is angst around the presidential election. This may be clouding what I am witnessing as a very robust outlook for area small businesses.”
This quarter’s survey asked specifically about the election and the impact of Brexit on central Virginia companies. No executives expect Brexit to have an impact on their business, either positive or negative. However, 74% of CEOs believe that Hillary Clinton will win the US presidential election and, while 52 percent believe her election will have no appreciable impact on their company’s profits, nearly 30 percent believe that it will decrease future profits.
GET COMPLETE ECONOMIC SURVEY NEWS
The survey, adapted from a similar Business Roundtable national survey, provides a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region. It also helps central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. Randy Raggio, Associate Dean at the Robins School of Business, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
Read Richmond Times Dispatch coverage.
Request Results
The Council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Robins School of Business, Virginia Council of CEOs survey index falls as hiring and capital spending plateau
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region through a comprehensive “Economic Survey.”
The survey, adapted from a similar Business Roundtable national survey, provides a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region. It also helps central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth.
Randy Raggio, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses each quarter.
Overall, the most recent Economic Outlook survey reflects concerns over the upcoming election and sluggish economy among chief executives in central Virginia. The survey’s index, which measures executives’ views on projected hiring, capital spending and sales over the next six months, fell sharply from its highest ever level in Q1 2016 back to the long-run average. The survey has been administered quarterly since 2010.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “I continue to hear guarded optimism among small business CEOs. They seem to be more guarded this quarter — with global uncertainty and a tumultuous presidential race,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs.
“Results seem to reflect caution….”
The executives’ revenue outlook remained strong with 67 percent of respondents expecting an increase in sales over the next six months, down only slightly from the 72 percent that projected an increase when surveyed a quarter ago. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect sales to increase by more than 10 percent over the next six months, which is identical to the number last quarter. However, only 32 percent of respondents expect capital spending to increase over the next six months, which is down from 40 percent last quarter, while 57 percent expect capital spending to stay flat. Forty-eight percent expect employment to increase over the next six months, which is down from more than 60 percent last quarter, while 48 percent expect employment to remain flat.
“Although there was a slight increase in the number of executives who expect sales and capital spending to fall over the next six months, this doesn’t seem to signal a pullback,” said Raggio. “Rather, based on open-ended comments in the survey, the results seem to reflect caution as the election approaches and the economy is still on a slow-growth trajectory.”
Next quarter’s survey will ask specifically about the election and the impact of Brexit on central Virginia companies.
Economic Outlook Index
The results also provide an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
About the 2016, Second Quarter Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey
The Virginia Council of CEOs is a nonprofit organization, whose mission is to connect the CEOs of second-stage companies so they can learn from each other and grow their businesses. The Council is led by a board of directors, which is comprised of 7 members and the executive director. Currently, there are 190 CEO members. Sixty-five CEOs responded to the survey, and the average company had about $7.5 million in revenue for the most recent 12-month period. Multiple industries are represented in the sample, including construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance and retail). The average employment of companies whose CEO responded to this survey was about 44.
About the Robins School of Business
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, top-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a top-ranked liberal arts university. Bloomberg Businessweek ranks both the Robins School’s undergraduate and part-time MBA programs among the top 25 in the country in their respective categories. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development, training and consulting.
Request Results
The council continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
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