All Smiles at the CEO Retreat
It’s all smiles at the 2011 CEO Retreat at Kingsmill Resort. Here are some highlights from today.
– It is hard to get to the meetings on time because there are so many cool people to talk to.
– Kingsmill always puts outstanding meals in front of us.
– Jay Goltz had the CEOs buzzing with his ideas about the “new” way to approach business.
– Somehow, we lined up 80 CEOs for this group photo in less than 10 minutes. No herding cats jokes needed.
– Robins School professor Jeff Pollack awarded coveted VACEOs bat for his work on the CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
– President Obama and family rumored to be arriving soon (don’t think he is here for our meeting).
– Eric Herrenkohl got us working on “How to Hire A-Players” and gives us the two most important interview questions. 1) Tell me a little about what you did in each previous job. 2) Follow up with broad, open-ended questions that get behind the programmed answers.
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Virginia SMB CEOs Less Optimistic Than The Big Guys
The First Quarter 2011 CEO Economic Outlook Survey for Central Virginia showed slightly lower expectations for the coming six months. While nearly 70% of CEOs expected increases in sales, only 40% saw increased hiring, and less than 30% expected increased capital spending. The Economic Outlook Index, a composite representative of these data, dropped slightly from 92.27 to 85.63.
The Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) / Robins School of Business survey mirrors that of the Business Roundtable (BRT), an association of CEOs of leading U.S. companies. Interestingly, the BRT survey’s index jumped significantly – up 12 points to 113. This is the highest index since the BRT survey’s inception in 2002.
The graph above shows both the VACEOs / Robins School and BRT indices. Clearly, small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) in central Virginia are not experiencing the same intensity of recovery as large businesses at this time. My interactions with VACEOs members tell me why.
- Large corporations’ moves during the recession to reduce workforce and limit spending helped them to maintain profitability and conserve cash. SMBs made similar moves, but limited economies of scale prevented most from being able to come out of the recession with the resources to expand as the economy rebounds.
- Small business did not get bailed out. The big guys did. Token efforts by the Feds to stimulate small business lending had little effect on the street.
That said, some central Virginia SMBs are coming out of the recession like the VCU Rams in the NCAA Tournament! They appear to be the ones that went into it with low debt and cash reserves (the ability to pick off weaker competitors), or those that are bringing innovation to market.
CEO Retreat Program Announced
The Virginia Council of CEOs recently announced the program for the 2011 CEO Retreat. This much anticipated annual event will feature presentations by small business blogger Jay Goltz and economist Alan Beaulieu. Also speaking will be the author of “How to Hire A Players”, Eric Herrenkohl and the CEO of Geomagic, Ping Fu.
The CEO Retreat will be held on April 6-8 at Kingsmill Resort in Williamsburg, Virgnia. Your can download the CEO Retreat 2011 Brochure or see the VACEOs web site for more details.
More than 100 CEOs of small and mid-sized Virginia businesses are expected to attend.
Area CEOs 2011 Outlook is Positive
For the second straight quarter, CEOs in central Virginia have an optimistic view of business and the economy in the coming six months. Top executives predict an increase in sales and also say they are more likely to hire new employees, according to the Fourth Quarter 2010 CEO Economic Outlook Survey.
Additional findings revealed that CEOs are continuing to forecast an increase in their company’s capital spending, as well as predicting less of a decrease in sales than they expected during the third quarter.
The Virginia Council of CEOs and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business jointly conduct the quarterly economic outlook survey, which helps central Virginia companies plan for growth.
“There’s once again optimism about the future, and we are excited to see this trend continue,” said Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs. “We have found that this data is consistently a good indicator of current market conditions and what business owners and their peers are thinking about in regards to future trends and opportunities.”
The following survey results, from the fourth quarter and the third quarter, show projections for the next six months for sales, spending and employment:
| 2010 Q4 | 2010 Q3 | ||||||
| Increase | No
Change |
Decrease | Increase | No
Change |
Decrease | ||
| How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months? | 70.4% | 22.5% | 7.0% | 72.0% | 18.7% | 9.3% | |
| How do you expect your company’s U.S. capital spending to change in the next six months? | 33.8% | 50.7% | 15.5% | 46.7% | 33.3% | 20.0% | |
| How do you expect your company’s U.S. employment to change in the next six months? | 52.1% | 40.8% | 7.0% | 52.0% | 40.0% | 8.0% | |
The council and the Robins School collected responses from 70 business owners and CEOs of companies in central Virginia with more than $1 million of annual revenue. The data was compared to the third quarter survey, which consisted of 73 participants. Multiple industries are represented in the sample (i.e., construction, manufacturing, finance & insurance, and retail).
“Similar to the trend we saw from the third quarter of 2010, we continue to see lower percentages of CEOs reporting pessimism about future sales, capital expenditures and employment,” said Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School, who calculated the survey results. “These fourth quarter data show that more CEOs are anticipating increases, or at least no changes, relative to past data which showed they were predicting future decreases across all categories.”
Pollack adapted the survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs leading U.S. companies that conducts a similar survey nationally.
The results also provided a perspective of the economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Economic Outlook Index
| Survey Date | CEO Economic Outlook Index |
| Q4 2010 | 92.27 |
| Q3 2010 | 94.47 |
| Q2 2010 | 81.33 |
The Virginia Council of CEOs is continuing to expand the survey beyond its membership offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact McRoberts at info at vaceos dot org.
Mayhem or Disruption?
You know that “Mayhem” guy on the Allstate commercials? He shows up and unexpected, bad stuff happens. And then the insurance company helps you pay for it, right?
There is a different kind of mayhem that has a positive role in business. I call it disruption. It leads us to the possibility of a positive outcome. And that is where I am headed.
I ran into Patrick Morin back in October at a Panera. I had not seen him in a dozen or more years. As I waited for my appointment to show, Patrick “disrupted” me for about ten minutes. Somehow, in that short encounter, he had me thinking differently about my business and frankly, a little scared. More importantly, I have followed up on those thoughts and have changed my thinking on my work – with positive results.
Well, Patrick and I have had a few more disruptive conversations since then, and I was able to convince him to bring his message to the Virginia Council of CEOs this month. His talk “The Art of Disruption” is a must-see for any business owner who needs to break into new markets, change the company’s culture, get more out of people – or just avoid mayhem.
For more on Patrick’s January 12 talk, see http://jan12vaceos.eventbrite.com/
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